Go To The Movies
One key to good shotmaking is imagination. For each situation you face, you should be able to 'see' not just one shot but two or more, each with a different ratio of risk to reward.
Furthermore, for each of these alternative shots, you should be able to visualize in your mind the actual path of the ball - its direction of flight, trajectory, bounce, and roll. It's like running a mini-movie of each shot. A good player does this almost subconsciously and within seconds. Then, based upon the 'reviews' he gives these movies, he selects the most promising shot. For instance, when facing a tricky pitch to a fast green, he might reject the bump and run, after 'seeing' that the ball would roll well past the pin, and go instead with his vision of a soft-landing job shot.
Before playing my shots, I often run another movie in my mind. This last feature is a vision of a similar shot that I've played well in the past. This re-run reinforces my confidence in playing the shot at hand. It's a movie that I heartily recommend to you.